Published: October 15, 2026 · Last updated: October 15, 2026 · By the TopDiscountCodez deals team
Short answer: Yes, if your current TV still works. TVs are one of the categories expected to get the deepest Black Friday discounts this year, and Black Friday falls on November 27, 2026. But 2026 is not a normal year: a memory-chip shortage is pushing TV costs up, so buy now if your exact model has already hit its lowest tracked price.
Key takeaways
- Wait for Black Friday on mid-range and premium TVs (OLED, mini-LED, 65 inches and up), as long as you don’t need one today.
- Buy now if the exact model you want is already at its lowest tracked price. Some 2026 OLEDs hit new lows in mid-October.
- 2026 twist: chip and memory costs have jumped, so this year’s models carry higher list prices. Discounted 2025 models are often the real bargains, and that stock won’t last forever.
- Buy early without regret: Best Buy will match its own lower price if it drops during your return period. Walmart.com won’t adjust the price after you buy.
Why TVs are usually cheapest around Black Friday
Black Friday is still the No. 1 TV sale window. Adobe Analytics forecasts TV discounts of up to about 23% off list price for Black Friday 2026, putting TVs alongside toys and apparel as some of the deepest-discounted categories (as reported by the USA Today Network).
There’s a second reason. Retailers use TVs as traffic drivers, so the biggest names (Best Buy, Walmart, Amazon and Target) compete hardest on the same few models in late November. That’s why you often see the same TV at the same price at all four within hours.
The catch is that “Black Friday” no longer means one day. Retailers now run early Black Friday deals from late October, and Best Buy openly labels early drops as Black Friday prices. So “waiting for Black Friday” really means watching prices from about Halloween to Cyber Monday.
What’s different in 2026: the memory-chip squeeze
This is the part most “best time to buy a TV” guides skip, and it changes the advice.
Every smart TV has a small computer inside it, with memory, storage and a Wi-Fi chip. Demand from AI data centers has made those parts much more expensive:
- Basic DRAM prices hit about 4.4 times their year-earlier level in August 2026, and Wi-Fi modules rose from $33.90 to $118.20, according to Omdia figures reported by TechRadar. Laptops use the same memory chips, so timing matters there too; here’s the best time to buy a laptop this year.
- Omdia estimates the cost of building a TV has risen 30-50%, and US retailers agreed in spring 2026 to TV makers’ requests for price increases (Pocket-lint).
- China’s big LCD panel makers are also pushing for higher panel prices in Q4 2026, although panel prices are expected to stay flat in October (Counterpoint Research).
What that means for you: retailers are still fighting hard on price, but a lot of the cheap TVs you see in 2026 promotions are last year’s models. Walmart’s May Rollbacks, for example, had an 85-inch TCL Roku TV at $498, matching its 2025 Black Friday low, and it was older stock. Once that clearance is gone, what’s left are 2026 models with higher starting prices.
So don’t assume this Black Friday will automatically beat last year’s prices. The biggest discounts will likely be on 2025 models and on premium sets, where the memory cost is a smaller share of the price.
Buy now or wait: a verdict by TV type
| TV you want | Our verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Budget TV under 50″ (HD/basic 4K) | Buy now if it’s on sale, otherwise wait | Small TVs are hit hardest by chip costs; Black Friday doorbusters exist but sell out fast |
| Mid-range 55″-65″ 4K LED/QLED | Wait for Black Friday week | The most competitive category; expect the same deal at several retailers |
| 2025 model on clearance | Buy now at a good price | Discounted old stock is the 2026 bargain, and sizes sell out first |
| 2026 OLED (e.g. LG C6/B6) | Buy now only at a tracked low, else wait | Prices are already moving; some hit lows in October |
| 75″ and larger | Wait | Big screens get the biggest dollar cuts in late November |
| TV for a game or event this month | Buy now | A missed event isn’t worth $100 |
Real October 2026 prices to compare against
Here’s why “just wait” isn’t always right. Price trackers show some 2026 OLEDs already dropping hard in mid-October, after Prime Big Deal Days (Oct 6-7):
| TV | Usual price | Lowest tracked so far | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| LG 65″ OLED evo C6 | $1,599.99 | $1,399.99 | Oct 11, 2026 |
| LG 65″ OLED B6 | $1,399.99 | $999.99 | Oct 12, 2026 |
Source: BasketPrice price history (C6) and BasketPrice (B6), 37 days of tracking. Prices bounced back up within a day.
Notice the pattern: prices dip for a day or two, then rise again. If you see your model at or near a tracked low like this, that’s a buy signal. Black Friday may match it, but it may not beat it by much.
Ready to compare current TV and electronics offers? Browse our electronics coupons and deals before you check out.
Budget buyers can also compare Geekbuying smart screen app deals, such as $33.78 off the MESWAO 32-inch screen.
How to buy early without losing the Black Friday price
This is the move most shoppers miss. Where you buy matters as much as when. Check our early Black Friday 2026 start dates to see when each retailer opens its deals.
Best Buy. Under its Price Match Guarantee, Best Buy will match its own lower price if it drops during your return and exchange period. So you can buy a TV in early November and ask for the difference if Best Buy cuts the price on Black Friday. Two catches: it doesn’t match competitors’ prices from Thanksgiving Day through the Monday after, and opened large TVs can carry a restocking fee if you return them, so ask for the price adjustment rather than returning the TV.
Walmart. Walmart.com doesn’t match competitors and doesn’t adjust prices after you buy (Walmart’s policy). If you buy a TV at Walmart online, buy it at the price you’re happy with. Check current Walmart deals and coupons before ordering.
Amazon and Target. Both run early holiday deals on TVs. Compare the final price, including delivery and any membership requirements, with our Amazon deals page and Target Circle offers.
Are Black Friday TVs lower-quality “special” models?
Sometimes. Some doorbuster TVs are made for the sale, with model numbers you won’t find elsewhere and cheaper parts (fewer HDMI 2.1 ports, weaker processing, lower brightness). Before buying a bargain big screen:
- Search the exact model number, not just the brand and size.
- Check whether reviews exist for that exact model.
- Compare specs with the brand’s regular model in the same size.
Name-brand current models (like LG’s C and B series OLEDs or Samsung’s and TCL’s mainline QLEDs) are the safest Black Friday buys because you can check their price history.
Is Cyber Monday cheaper than Black Friday for TVs?
Usually not by much. Most TV deals start before Black Friday and carry through Cyber Monday at the same price. Treat Black Friday through Cyber Monday as one window; if your model hits your target price on any of those days, buy it. Footwear works the same way; here’s the best time to buy shoes in 2026.
Shopping for a console too? See our PS5 Black Friday deals guide.
Our recommendation
If your TV works, set a target price for one or two exact models now, watch them from late October, and buy the moment either hits your number, ideally from a retailer that matches its own later price drops. If you need a TV now, or you find a 2025 model or a 2026 OLED at its tracked low, buy it today. With chip costs rising in 2026, waiting for a deal that may never come is the bigger risk.
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